Prognostic Significance of the Integral Index of the Alcohol Situation in Assessing Regional Differences in Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Russian Federation

Aim. To evaluate the stability of the integral index of the alcohol situation in the regions of the Russian and its prognostic significance regarding adult mortality from diseases of the circulatory system.

Material and methods. The dynamics of standardized mortality rate for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and TM in 2012 and 2018 in regions of Russia with safe and unsafe alcohol situations was analyzed. The average group mortality rate were evaluated, as well as the average rate of dynamics of the indicator reduction for the period from 2012 to 2018.

Results. In 2012, differences in the rates of total mortality, as well as mortality from CSD, IHD, and CVD in regions with different levels of alcohol wellbeing were significant with a significance level of p <0.05. In 2018, intergroup differences in mortality from CSD and IHD were unreliable. Differences in average mortality rates from other causes significantly differed with a significance level of p <0.05. Total mortality and mortality from CVD, including individual forms, decreased in all regions, regardless of the level of alcohol well-being. The average rate of decline in mortality in the group of regions with an unfavorable situation was lower than the same indicator in regions with a favorable situation, with the exception of mortality from CVD. The most pronounced were differences between regions in the rate of decline in mortality from MI (p <0.05). For the remaining causes of death, the differences were not significant.

Conclusion. The hypothesis of a significant contribution of the alcohol factor to cardiovascular mortality is confirmed. In the groups of regions that differ in the integral index of the alcohol situation, significant differences were noted in the indicators of both total mortality and mortality from the main groups of cardiovascular diseases. These differences persist over time, which confirms the hypothesis that the proposed integral indicator can be used for a long-term forecast of the influence of the alcohol situation on public indicators.

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