ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF THROMBOEMBOLIC COMPLICATIONS PREVENTION WITH ORAL ANTICOAGULANTS ON BUDGET IN PATIENTS WITH NON-VALVULAR ATRIAL FIBRILLATION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for thromboembolic complications, requiring administration of vitamin K antagonists (warfarin) or the new oral anticoagulants (apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban).

Aim. To assess the influence of apixaban use on the budget as an alternative to warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban use in patients with non-valvular AF in the Russian Federation (RF).

Material and methods. The analysis was performed with the perspective of the health care budget with 5 year horizon period and by the pharmacoeconomic model developed by Pharmerit International (Rotterdam, Netherlands) and adapted for the RF. The cardiovascular complications rate in the model was in line with the results of comparative clinical trials: ARISTOTLE, AVERROES, RE-LY, ROCKET-AF. The analysis suggested that 100% of patients with atrial fibrillation were transferred on apixaban instead of warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban. The analysis was based on the assumption that patients were fully committed to the therapy over the horizon of the study, ie, refusal of treatment was not considered. The possibility of episodes of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, the severity of which corresponded to previously published data for the Russian population, was considered in the study. The present study was performed based on two scenarios. In the first of them the cost of anticoagulation therapy was determined on the basis of the average weighted prices of public procurement for the period from 04.01.2014 to 01.04.2015. The alternative scenario purported to demonstrate potential savings of the budget of the health care system on the inclusion of apixaban in the list of essential drugs. This scenario took into account that the cost of dabigatran and rivaroxaban corresponded to registered maximum selling price including 10% VAT and 10% of the wholesale allowance and the cost of apixaban - presumed maximum selling price which the producer intends to register in case the drug is included in the essential drugs list, subject to 10% VAT and 10% wholesale mark. The cost of complications treatment corresponded to the rate of compulsory health insurance for the city of St. Petersburg for 2015.

Results. The estimated number of patients with non-valvular AF who require anticoagulation therapy in the RF is 1,196,600 people according to the epidemiological data. Treatment with apixaban significantly reduces the incidence of cardiovascular events as compared with warfarin and rivaroxaban. The results of the budget impact analysis, taking into account the price obtained at auction from 01.04.14 through 01.04.15, show a decrease in the load on the budget when the apixaban is included in the therapy regimen of non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Potential savings of resources of the health care system reached 10.9 billion rubles as compared with dabigatran and 39.2 billion rubles as compared with rivaroxaban. This advantage can be explained by both the lower cost of apixaban in comparison with reference drugs, and a reduction of the in-hospital expenses on complications treatment. Switching from warfarin to apixaban increases the budget load in 2.81 times. However, previous data demonstrate the economic feasibility of the additional costs of apixaban, that help to achieve significant advantages from a clinical point of view. The results obtained on the basis of prices, intended to include apixaban in the list of essential drugs, showed that in this case the savings of the budget of the health care system will reach 127-129 bln. rubles for 5 years (average 26%) as compared with dabigatran and rivaroxaban. The comparison of apixaban with warfarin showed an increase in total costs of therapy in 2.72 times.

Conclusion. The inclusion of apixaban in the therapy regimen of non-valvular atrial fibrillation can significantly reduce the burden on the budget of the health care system as compared with dabigatran and rivaroxaban, as well as reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events compared with warfarin. This allows recommending the inclusion of the drug in the federal and regional programs for the prevention of thromboembolic complications in this group of patients.

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